| FNQ as a region is exposed to climate change on multiple fronts: extreme weather (cyclones, storm surge, flooding); coastal erosion and hillslope erosion and stability; health and diseases; damage to reefs, rainforests and coastal environments; accessibility to remote areas; impacts on infrastructure; and consequent impacts on the economy, lifestyle and livability of the region. For a comprehensive overview of Climate Change impacts on the Great Barrier Reef region refer to Climate Change in the Cairns and Great Barrier Reef Region (www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/publications/gbr.html)
According to the State Government, FNQ can expect the following general impacts from climate change: - The region is likely to experience an increase in rainfall intensity, and possibly get more rain over the summer wet season.
- More frequent occurrence of extreme weather could make isolated indigenous communities in the far north and Torres Strait inaccessible more often.
- Changes in rainfall and hotter temperatures could increase the risk of water, food and insect borne diseases.
The Wet Tropics Rainforest's
- Research by the Rainforest CRC shows that the upland areas of Wet Tropics rainforests are very temperature sensitive.
- A 1 degree increase in temperatures may decrease the amount of available habitat in the upland rainforest by 50% (AGO 2002)
Great Barrier Reef and Marine Environments
- Increase acidification of oceans which may impact the growth of many marine species.
- Fish populations and fisheries may be impacted by changes in stream flow and in mangrove, estuarine and reef and seagrass bed breeding areas.
- By 2050 bleaching of corals may be an annual event, hindering recovery from bleaching and leading to colonisation of reefs by macro algae.
- A 2004 report by WWF and Queensland Tourism Industry predicted that even under best case warming scenarios, only about 5% of reefs will remain unbleached by 2050.
CSIRO makes the following prediction for FNQ:
- Hotter temperatures:0.3-1.3 deg C by 2030; 0.8-5.2 deg C by 2070.
- Days over 35 deg C per year to go from 3 to 15 by 2070.
- Rainfall - still uncertain but likely drier dry season and wetter wet season (up by 20-30%), with a decline in overall annual rainfall.
- Increased cyclone intensity with wind speed up by 5-10% (note: an increase in wind speed of 10% results in a 100% increase in the damage potential of the wind).
- A rise in global sea-level from 18-59 cm with regional variations (note: this does not factor in dynamic destabilisation of ice sheets).
- Increased risk and severity of storm surge, with a 20-30% increase in storm surge height.
Stay tuned for more information. Currently more detailed work is being carried out to refine local impacts of climate change on FNQ.
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