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The Earths
climate undergoes a wide range of natural variation over time. However, the
vast majority of the world's climate scientists agree that the climate is now
undergoing rapid changes, and that human activity is a key agent in driving
this change.
The earth is kept
warm by the greenhouse effect, when gases in the atmosphere trap heat from the
sun that is being reradiated back into space from the earth. Adding more greenhouse
gases (GHG's) to the atmosphere increases the amount of heat trapped, forcing
global temperatures to rise.
The key issues
associated with climate change are:
- Current changes are being forced by human
activity
There are two main ways our actions influence the
climate:
- Releasing GHG's into
the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels and from clearing vegetation
(carbon is released from decaying vegetation and associated soils)
- Reducing the
removal of carbon dioxide (CO2)the principal GHG, as a result of vegetation clearing associated
with land use changes.Currently
approximately 8 000 000 000 tons of CO2 are released into the
atmosphere every year from burning fossil fuels (approx 6.4Gt CO2)
and land use changes (1.6Gt CO2) – IPCC, 2007:Summary for
Policymakers. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are currently
higher than at any other time in the past 420 000 years.
The good news
here is that by changing our actions we can reduce the extent of climate
change.
- The rate of Change
We
have already observed changes to our climate that are more rapid than anything
the earth has experienced for at least the last 1 800 years (CSIRO- www.csiro.au/resources/psrs.html).
Warming
over the past 50 years has been twice that of the last 100 years, and 11 of the
last 12 years (1995 - 2006) rank amongst the hottest on record (IPCC,
2007:Summary for Policymakers).
The changes that are occurring are happening very
rapidly.This has big implications for
animals and plants and the ecosystems of which they are part as most will
struggle to adapt to such rapid changes, and many will go extinct with flow on
implications for the health and stability of the environments of which they are
a part.The pace of change also has big
implications for humans, as it will impact agriculture, habitability of coastal
areas, human health and spread of diseases, water availability and many other
facets of our lives.
- Small changes in temperature have big
consequences.
The earth has warmed, on average, by about 0.7 °C since
1910 (for Australia
it has been a 0.9°Crise - CSIRO). Over
the next 90 years, global average surface temperatures are expected to increase
between 1.4 to 5.8°C (IPCC). These figures don't sound very big, but if you
consider that arise in temperatures of
1.5-2.5oC is likely to result in 20-30% of all known plant and
animal species being at an increased risk of extinction (IPCC Climate Change
2007:Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability), one starts to get a sense of the
magnitude of what appear to be small changes in temperature.Both the Great Barrier
Reef and upland Wet Tropics Rainforests are highly sensitive to
increases in temperature, and an increase of 2 degrees will result in major
species declines in both these world heritage environments.
- It's the extremes the count
Small increases in temperature result in larger climate
variability and greater extremes, and it is usually the extremes that do the
damage. For example, elevated temperatures of 1 deg C above the long term
monthly summer average are enough to cause coral bleaching in many dominant
coral species (GBRMPA). Whist this may occur for only a couple of weeks each
year, if it happens every year, reefs don't get a chance to recover, die and
get replaced by algae.It only took a
few extreme days of heat to result in the premature death of approximately 70
000 people in the European heat wave of 2003.
- Dangerous Climate Change
A 2°C increase in global average
temperature (or around 450 ppm CO2) is considered by many to denote the threshold for
dangerous climate change – i.e. the point at which the climate system may move
to a state that we no longer have any great ability to influence change.The climate is a non-linear system, which
means it has tipping points which if crossed will shift the system rapidly into
a new state.We don't know exactly where
these tipping points are, but many climate scientists are deeply concerned that
we are now dangerously close to one, and there is strong agreement that we need
to stabiles the climate at or below 2°C to avoid the possibility of crossing
such thresholds.A 2°C increase in
temperature will already result in major changes to weather systems across the
worlds and have major negative impacts on the environment and communities
alike.
F.
Slow response time
Carbon dioxide remains in the
atmosphere for an average of about 80 years.This means it takes a number of decades for the climate to respond to
changes we make today.We know we are
dangerously close to causing major disruptions to the global climate, so it is
therefore essential that strong action be taken sooner rather than later, given
this slow response time. Even with immediate action to reduce our GHG
emissions, this slow response time also means we are going to experience some
degree of climate change.The longer we
leave action to address this, the more sever these changes are likely to be.
G.
We have the tools and technology to tackle the issue now
The changes required to tackle climate
change are changes that already make social, economic and environmental sense.
We can effect major reductions in greenhouse gases by dramatically improving
efficiency, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy, and making sure our
activities are sustainable.If we are to
avoidmajor climate change, we need to
reduce our emissions dramatically over the next one to two decades – this is
achievable using current technologies,but requires considerable community support and political will.
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